Monday's Bounce in SPX, NDX Pauses on Tuesday...Materials, Real Estate, Energy Led Sectors...After-hours: UPST, AMD, SMCI Down on Negative EPS Reaction...

© 2025

SPX -30.75, 6,299, opened higher and closed lower for the sixth time in seven trading days.   SPX pulled back to Monday’s S1 level and remained above Friday’s high.  Tuesday can be described as a bull flag bounce pause day. 

Breadth weakened on Tuesday after Monday’s large rallies.  Exchange advancers and decliners were mixed.

IPOs from last week AMBQ -6.81% and FIG -10.74% both closed lower.

NDX -0.73%, bull flag bounce pause day. 

DJI, 44,111 -0.14%, led by weakness in MSFT, MCD, GS, CRM.   

NVDA -1.74, -0.97%, bull flag bounce pause.

AVGO -4.79, -1.61%, bull flag bounce pause.

PLTR +12.61, +7.85%, on a positive EPS reaction.

AXON +122.24, +16.41%, a horizontal BO on a positive EPS reaction.

After-hours:

UPST -2.79, -3.38%, beat, EPS .36 vs .25 Est., beat, Rev 257.3 M vs. 225.4 Est., raise guidance, negative EPS reaction.

SMCI -9.39, -16.29%, miss EPS .41 vs .44 Est., miss Rev 5.757B vs. 5.884B Est., lowers guidance, negative EPS reaction.

AMD -11.06, -6.34%, miss EPS .48 vs .49 Est. beat Rev 7.69B vs. 7.41B Est., raise guidance, negative EPS reaction.

Mega caps BRK/B, AMZN rose and TSLA, GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, MSFT, AVGO, META, TSM fell on Tuesday. 

SPY down 3.20 at 627.97, bull flag bounce pause day, 68.0 million shares, below average volume, closes above Friday’s high,

VIX up .33 at 17.85

QQQ down 3.83 at 560.27

UNH, MMM, CVX, SHW led DJIA, 12 advancers, -16

AXON, PLTR, LDOS, BR led SPX, 226 advancers,

AXON, PLTR, INTC, ODFL led NDX, 29 advancers,

Up: IWM,

Down: DIA, SPY, QQQ,

The SPY MFC green line is down at 78.8, as a price action technician today’s SPY pause remained above Friday’s high following yesterday’s bull flag bounce, price above the high of the low candle is short-term bullish. -2.5

Four of eleven sectors were higher on Monday led by XLB, XLRE and XLE.

Uptrend sectors: XLK, XLC, XLI, XLY, XLU, XLF, XLB, XLRE,

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLE, XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend breakout is up.  The ten-day trend is sideways.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down a little

29 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Tuesday.

41 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: AVGO, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, CSX, WBD, DASH, CSGP, GOOGL, AEP, SNPS, CDNS, FAST, PEP, CCEP, AMGN, TTD, REGN, ORLY, PLTR, XEL, MDB, PDD, BKR, CEG, ROST, TMUS, GILD, APP, AZN, CTAS, FANG, META, BIIB, EA, VRTX, IDXX, MRVL, AXON, LIN, PCAR,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

AXON, LIN, PCAR,  

Moving Below 30 DMA = 6

ADSK, CSCO, INTU, KLAC, LRCX, TRI,

Add Comments here:

NDX, SPX Reverse Friday's Selloff, Close above Low Day in Bull Flag Bounce...Technology, Communication Services, Utilities Led Sectors...

© 2025

SPX +91.93, 6,329, gapped this morning and reversed Friday’s selloff in a bull flag bounce.  Breadth strengthened significantly on Monday as buyers returned to the futures market Sunday evening and continued buying after Monday’s open until the close. Advancers led decliners on the exchanges and in the major indexes.

NDX +1.87%, reversed Friday’s selloff in a bull flag bounce. 

DJI, 44,173 +1.24%, reversed Friday’s selloff led by strength in GS, MSFT, HD, NVDA.   

NVDA +6.28, +3.62%, new high close, above the HOLD.

AVGO +9.08, +3.15%, bull flag bounce, close above the HOLD.

META +26.36, +3.51%, reverses Friday’s selloff, close above the HOLD.

MSFT +11.53, +1.76%, reverses Friday’s selloff, bull flag setup.

IPOs from last week AMBQ -3.42% and FIG -27.38% both closed lower.

Mega caps NVDA, META, AVGO, GOOGL, MSFT, TSLA, TSM, AAPL rose and AMZN, BRK/B fell on Monday. 

SPY up 9.45 at 631.17, reverses Friday selloff, 73.1 million shares, average volume, closes above the high of the low day,

VIX down 2.86 at 17.52

QQQ up 10.22 at 564.10

NVDA, MMM, DIS, GS led DJIA, 28 advancers, +17

IDXX, WSM, PCG, TPR led SPX, 427 advancers, 

BIIB, EA, REGN, KDP, LRCX led NDX, 86 advancers,

Up: IWM, QQQ, SPY, DIA,

Down:

The SPY MFC green line is down at 82.3, price closed above the high of the low candle and is short-term bullish. -3.1

Ten of eleven sectors were higher on Monday led by XLK, XLC and XLU.

Uptrend sectors: XLK, XLC, XLI, XLY, XLU, XLF, XLB, XLRE,

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLE, XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend breakout is up.  The ten-day trend is up a little.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down a little

86 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Monday.

44 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: AVGO, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, CSX, WBD, DASH, CSGP, GOOGL, AEP, SNPS, CDNS, FAST, PEP, CCEP, AMGN, TTD, REGN, ORLY, PLTR, XEL, MDB, PDD, BKR, CEG, ROST, TMUS, GILD, INTU, APP, AZN, CTAS, FANG, META, BIIB, EA, VRTX, ADSK, CSCO, IDXX, KLAC, LRCX, MRVL, TRI,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Tuesday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 7

ADSK, CSCO, IDXX, KLAC, LRCX, MRVL, TRI,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 1

KHC,

Add Comments here:

A Busy Day and Week Ends Lower...SPX, NDX Close Lower after AAPL, AMZN EPS...Breadth Weakens...Communication Services, Utilities and Industrials Led Sectors...

© 2025

SPX -101.38, 6,238, gapped lower after futures fell Thursday following earnings reactions from AMZN and AAPL, and more tariff comments from the President.  The Jobs report 73K vs 106K consensus produced a 31-point trading range in the first 15 minutes, but only a 6-point change during the first one hour.  After the open SPX fell on above average selling volume  and another 72 points in the first 45 minutes and bounced into a trading range until the close.

ISM was 48.0 vs. 49.5 consensus and the Commissioner of BLS was fired.  Later Adrianna Kugler resigned as Fed Governor effective August 8.  Friday was a busy news day during a busy news week including FOMC, four mega-cap earnings: MSFT, META, AMZN, AAPL, IPOs AMBQ and FIG, and above consensus GDP along with other regularly scheduled economic announcements.

Based on the initial price reaction, institutions liked the results from MSFT, META and AAPL but not AMZN.  All four stocks attracted more sellers than buyers and faded from their initial open.

NDX -1.96%, opened lower and closed lower. 

DJI, 43,588 -1.23%, closed lower led by weakness in AMZN, GS, UNH, MSFT, CAT.   

Breadth weakened further on Friday.

TSLA -5.64, -1.83%, fell lower in its channel.

AVGO -5.06, -1.72%, formed a potential 2-day bull flag pattern.

META -23.43, -3.03%, gave back 30% of Thursday’s positive EPS reaction.

MSFT -9.39, -1.76%, gave back half of Thursday’s positive EPS reaction.

AAPL -5.19, -2.50%, reversed an initial move up on a EPS and sales beat, iPhone sales exceed estimates, active installed base hits new high.

AMZN -19.36, -8.27%, beat EPS, sales, expects Q3 operating income of $18B less than $19.5B estimates, a negative EPS reaction

____________________________________________________________________

EPS Saturday:  1 SPX company reports BRK/B Saturday.

Q2 First day reaction:

Positive: FSLR, KMB, PARA, D, CBOE, RMD, REGN, TROW, EBAY, CHRW, META, XYL, WDC, RBLX, NCLH, HII, RDDT, PTC, ALL, TYL, FFIV, WTW, AME, SPGI, MSFT, MAS, APTV, HOLX, CMS, CMCSA, FE, F, PRU EXC, XEL, MA, DINO, BIIB, VTR, GNRC, TER, HUM, EA, BG, EXE, AEP, MO, HSY, ETR, GLW, INCY, CDNS, CBRE, UHS, WELL, CINF, WM, HIG, VLTO, DECK, NEM, VRSN, CNC, EW, AON, MHK, WY, WST, FTI, URI, LH, ALLE, NDAQ, TMUS, GL, ROL, LVS, NOW, CCI, RJF, AOS, BX, POOL, ORLY, CNP, LHX, GOOGL, LW, GEV, TEL, BKR, TMO, CSGP, LII, GD, BSX, MCO, T, IQV, DHI, PHM, NOC, GPC DGX, IPG, PCAR, IVZ, ARE, KEY, SYF, AVY, WRB, VZ, ROP, RF, SCHW, SNA, PEP, TRV, TSM, CTAS, CFG, JNJ, OMC, PGR, JBHT, PLD, C, FAST, = 126+3

Neutral: AEE, KLAC, AES, CHD, CVX, LIN, BEN, CL, ES, EG, BLDR, VMC, AWK, VICI, K, PCG, ABBV, CVS, SO, ICE, APD, PPL, REG, ADP, BKNG, HES, V, SBUX, KHC, WEC, ACGL, PGF, DTE, PG, PSX, CSX, KDP, PKG, TSCO, COF, CME, NVR, HAS, HAL, DHR, PNR, NXPI, SHW, KO, DPZ, MMC, PNC, GS, BAC, BK, JPM = 56

Negative: EMN, COIN, IR, GWW, AMZN, LYB, MRNA, SYK, MTD, AAPL, CPT, CLX XOM AJG, ALGN, BAX, IP, CI, EXR, DXCM, QCOM, HWM, FICO, BMY, PSA, AVB, LRCX, MAA, MGM, KIM, KKR, HST, CTSH, INVH, ALB, EQIX, UDR, PWR, IEX, ODFL, TT, GEHC, ESS, GRMN, MDLZ, VRSK, RSG, BXP, PPG, STX, FTV, ITW, CZR, SW, CARR, UPS, BRO, PYPL, UNH, JCI, SWK, RCL, BA, AMT, ECL, NSC, NUE, HUBB, SYY, MRK, RVTY, CHTR, INTC, DOC, HCA, DLR, LKQ, DOW, MOH, CMG, TSLA, IBM, TXT, WAB, HON, VLO, UNP, AMP, DOV, ENPH, FI, TXN, OTIS, NEE, EQT, CB, HLT, FCX, NTRS, ISRG, TDY, APH, LMT, MSCI, PM, EFX, GM, STLD, RTX, NFLX, SLB, MMM, AXP, TFC, HBAN, ELV, ABT, GE, USB, FITB, MTB, MS, WFC, BLK, STT = 125

Bold is > +5% or -5%

___________________________________________________________________

Mega caps BRK/B rose and GOOGL, AVGO, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA, AAPL, TSM, META, AMZN fell on Friday. 

SPY down 10.36 at 621.72, gap down falls to July 16 support, 139.9 million shares, above average volume, highest since April 9

VIX up 3.66 at 20.38

QQQ down 11.13 at 553.88

SHW, HD, JNJ, MRK led DJIA, 11 advancers, -0

ALGN, FSLR, DHI, KMB led SPX, 144 advancers, decreased

BIIB, EA, REGN, KDP, LRCX led NDX, 25 advancers,

Up:

Down: DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM,

The SPY MFC green line is pointed down at 85.4 and is counter-trend defensive (day 2). -7.4

Three of eleven sectors were higher on Friday led by XLC, XLU and XLI.

Uptrend sectors: XLK, XLC, XLI, XLY, XLU, XLF, XLB, XLRE,

Neutral sectors: XLP, XLE, XLV,

Down trend sectors:

The 6-month intermediate trend breakout is up.  The ten-day trend is up a little.

3-month Intermediate Term Market Trend: Up

3-day Short Term Market Trend: Down

25 of 100 NDX stocks closed higher on Friday.

38 NDX stocks are above their 30 DMA: AVGO, MSFT, NVDA, AMD, CSX, WBD, DASH, CSGP, GOOGL, AEP, SNPS, CDNS, FAST, PEP, CCEP, AMGN, TTD, REGN, ORLY, PLTR, KHC, XEL, MDB, PDD, BKR, CEG, ROST, TMUS, GILD, INTU, APP, AZN, CTAS, FANG, META, BIIB, EA, VRTX,

NDX Stocks to Watch on Monday:

Moving Above 30 DMA = 3

BIIB, EA, VRTX,

Moving Below 30 DMA = 5

ADP, ADSK, AMZN, MRVL, PCAR,

Add Comments here: